As we wind down yet another year here at ACG "Smart Parts", we will once again devote our last issue of the year "finishing up" our current year of 2024, then take a "look ahead into the new year of 2025.
Although this year, we will add a little twist as in prior years, we took a look back over the current year to see what we all experienced. This year, we will prepare for "finishing the deal" in 2024 and then prepare for the new year ahead in 2025.
I think we all know what we have experienced this past year, so rather than looking back, we will "prepare" for not only the new year ahead, but we will also "prepare" for closing out the current year.
That being said, we will split up our issue into two sections starting with end of year preparation and then move on to predictions & preparation in the new year ahead. As always, we will also utilize our trusted industry resources on bringing our readers an in-depth look on what lies ahead.
We may not truly know what lies ahead, but one thing for sure is that we do have to prepare for what "may" lie ahead. Our industry as well as our overall economy will be moving into another era and now that the elections are over, it will be interesting to see what our industry and other economic "prognosticators" are predicting.
Let's start "Smart Parts" Readers with our End of Year Preparation!...
Here We Go!...
Part One: Preparing for Year End
Number One: Year End Physical Inventories
As mentioned earlier, many dealers actually perform their Parts Physical Inventory many different times in the year, depending on when their Fiscal Year actually ends. For the most part though, most actually perform their Parts Physical Inventory in either November or December.
This way, final posting of their Parts Reconciliation entries between the Parts Controlled Inventory and their Parts Ledger Balance Inventory by the end of the current year can be made. Keep in mind though, just because it's a time for end of year Parts Reconciliation, it doesn't necessarily mean the dealer actually makes these end of year adjustments.
Many dealers "opt out" of actually making these adjustments in lieu of using their LIFO, (last in, first out) inventory options. This option is usually used when there are way too many discrepancies between the Controlled Inventory and the Ledger Balance Inventory.
Using this option will eventually catch up to these dealers when the LIFO Funds run out and they will have to, at some point make the proper adjustments to balance out the discrepancies in the long run.
This is why we recommend doing Annual Physical Inventories every year. Whether in-house and utilizing an outside company at least every other year or three years at the most.
Secondly, we recommend that these end of year inventories are reconciled, no matter which way. Industry averages say that there should be a Parts Inventory "Uplift" of at least 3% - 5% in the Controlled Inventory versus the Ledger Balance Inventory.
Number Two: Applying for Parts & Labor Warranty Uplifts
Typically, the Manufacturers allow dealers a once a year, one time opportunity to apply for parts & labor increases going forward. This application process includes a 90-day survey of current Customer Pay Repair Orders to determine the average Parts & Labor Sales to determine the average Parts Gross & Service Labor Effective Rates.
Then, "unqualified" Customer Pay Parts & Labor Sales are backed out, which normally include competitive Parts & Labor Sales to determine the average over the 90-day Survey Period.
It's important to note though that if the current Customer Pay Effective Labor Rate is not at least 90% of the Posted Door Rate and the Customer Pay Parts Retained Gross Percentages aren't at least at Industry Guide of 40% - 42%, it is not recommended to apply for these uplifts.
Number Three: Review Current Pricing Strategies
Our Number Three actually falls right in line with our Number Two and even though we should be reviewing our Pricing Strategies as a monthly routine, it's especially important to review them before entering into a new year.
Keeping up with our Pricing Strategies to remain at or above Industry Guidelines on a monthly basis actually allows the dealer to feel confident in applying for the once-a-year application for Warranty Parts & Labor Uplifts with the Manufacturers.
In Parts, we need to be looking at our Competitive Prices more frequently as markets change, (as we have all experienced) and costs keep climbing, especially on fast moving parts and oil.
Menu Pricing should be reviewed on a quarterly basis just to keep up with rising costs and maintaining proper gross profit margins while remaining competitive.
Our Customer Parts Matrix should also be reviewed on a quarterly basis at minimum to ensure that we are getting a little more uplift on "captive" parts to offset our competitive parts that may carry less gross while remaining competitive in the market.
Number Four: Obsolescence Prevention
Even though we should have an on-going monthly plan to control obsolescence to eventually keep us within industry guidelines of 0% - 5%, we also need to review our goals and plans to keep us within these guidelines in the upcoming year.
Parts will go obsolete each year at a rate of at least 3% - 5% no matter what we do to prevent it. The real question should not be how many parts will go obsolete each year. The real question is what are we going to do about it?
The fact is dealers with an unacceptable amount of obsolescence is due to the fact that they have just let it build up and don't have a plan in place to get rid of it and control it going forward.
This is why I recommend if you don't have an Obsolescence Prevention Plan in place...get one! The beginning of a new year is the best time to put a plan in place as we will have 12 months to begin hitting that goal of 0% - 5%, even if your dealer is enrolled in the Manufacturers Vendor Managed Inventory, (VMI) Programs.
The best part is...if you don't have one, we can help!
Number Five: Dealership Infrastructure & DMS Review
Lastly, one of the most important year end preparations that needs attention is our own current dealership infrastructure and DMS Set Ups Reviews. In the area of "Infrastructure", this would include Sales & Gross Projections for the new year, employee reviews and logistics.
Most dealers require their managers to give them their sales, gross and expense projections for the upcoming year prior to entering the new year. Also, it's the best time to encourage our employees to be part of this new quest into the new year with new incentives and individual career path goals.
Reviewing the current year's results in Parts & Service are huge components into making our projections into the new year as well as economic and natural growth predictions. We always have to look at what history has shown us along with a goal and a realistic plan to push the bar even further.
In the area of logistics, we have to look at what we will need in order to achieve our future goals and dealer expectations. The end of the year is where most dealers are looking to invest in their own dealership and end of year "write offs".
Space & equipment modifications, upgrades as well as staffing requirements are just a few of the areas that we need to communicate to our dealers that may be needed in moving forward and achieving newer and higher goals.
It's also a great time to review our DMS Set Ups & Controls as these basic DMS Set Ups tend to be overlooked. In my opinion, our DMS Set Ups & Controls should not be viewed as "set it and forget it".
Modifications on Parts Phase-In and Phase-Out, Stocking Levels utilizing ABC Source Ranking & Stocking Groups, or Source Management are key set ups that can even affect Accounting Integration and Monthly Reconciliation in the future.
Part Two: Preparing & Predictions for the Year Ahead
This topic is one of my favorites each year as we get a chance to look at what may lie ahead in the new year. Doing this research each year always makes me optimistic in setting new personal goals in our ever-changing automotive industry.
We will start out with some insight from our trusted industry analysts on what history has led us to in making their forecasts for 2025, starting with New & Used Vehicle Sales. After all, it all starts with the initial vehicle sale that will determine what we see on the back end.
Let's start off with the J.P. Morgan Research Team as they predict the following...
"The car industry is undergoing a radical transformation, with most carmakers agreeing the next 10 years will bring more changes than the previous two decades. The next target date cited by automakers as a tipping point is 2025, when everything from fuel to cost and the companies that build cars are set to look dramatically different..."
Wow!...what a start as this refers to the upcoming new year! This article continues with their expectation of a continued rise in Electric Vehicles, (EV's), Hybrid Electric Vehicles, (HEV's) and Plug-In Electric Vehicles, (PEV's to an overall market share of 7.7% at 8.4 vehicles in 2025 worldwide.
I agree on a global standpoint that we are headed that way, but on our domestic front, we may want to consider some other analyst's views on what we may see on the home front.
In a recent article in MotorTrader.com by Justin Fischer, gives us some insight on what will be happening domestically...
"Following a year of stagnant sales, automakers will have to work harder for each sale in 2025. New Car Incentives are already on the rise, a trend that will continue in the new year. Falling Interest Rates will bring 0% financing to more models and pull shoppers away from the used car market."
I tend to agree with him as many automakers are experiencing an excessive amount, or "Days Supply" of new vehicles of over 170 Days with some manufacturers, which is three times their desired levels, or Days Supply.
Justin Fischer goes on to say...
"After four years of tumult, the car market is finally starting to resemble normalcy, at least in terms of seasonal price fluctuations and dealership lot inventory. Yet, as many car shoppers know, new car prices remain high. Over the past five years, new car prices have surged by 27% and remain just shy of the record highs we saw in late 2022. So, will car prices drop in 2025?..."
A recent survey by Edmunds.com found that nearly half of all new car buyers aim to spend $35,000.00 or less on their next vehicle. Considering that the average transaction price for new car was $47,870.00 in mid-2024, there is a mismatch between what consumers want, and the automakers are trying to sell"
So, what about Parts?...
It's interesting to see these insights and predictions from a new vehicle standpoint, but when it comes to Parts & Service, this can only lead to more vehicles hitting our Service Drives ending up with more Parts & Labor Sales.
In my opinion, it just won't lead to more Parts Sales, it will also lead into a new wave of what parts we will be selling. We all know that maintenance parts will be on the increase, but we will also see more parts that drive the technology in today's new vehicles.
In a recent article in TechInsights.com, they had this to say as to what we in Parts should be looking for more of in the near and distant future...
"The automotive semiconductor market is on the verge of significant growth, driven by evolving technologies and increasing demand for electric vehicles and automation. With innovations like 5G chipsets, advanced E/E architectures, and the rise of software-defined vehicles, the industry is transforming at a rapid pace".
In addition to the aftermarket parts sales growth both on the domestic and worldwide market as we reported in my earlier article this year, we also have a new wave of what type of parts we may be adding to our shelves in the future.
A few of "take aways" for me in these predictions from our industry analysts are...
- No matter what your vehicle of preference, there is an abundance of New Vehicle Inventory out there that the automakers have to unload.
- I believe the consumer will benefit from this "unbalance" of the desired New Vehicle purchase price versus the current average new vehicle purchase price.
- Rebates, Cash Back, Zero Down, Zero or Low Financing will drive consumers back to our showroom floors in 2025.
- I believe Used Vehicle Prices & Values will drop with this eventual "sell off" of New Vehicle Inventory.
If you want to learn more about ACG Smart Parts "Eight Habits of Highly Successful Parts Managers", visit our website @ www.smartpartstraining.com, or...just pick up the phone and call me at :
(786) 521 - 1720...After all, not knowing is not worth not "fixing" it...